There’s a lot of nervousness among Dems right now, as Kamala’s magic Momentum has apparently dried up, and the pollsters show a “too close to call” horse race.
Well, take heart, because there’s a whole lotta positive factors to keep in mind:
Republicans For Kamala:
I'm 78 and a life-long political junkie and I have NEVER seen Republicans endorse (and campaign with) Democrats. NEVER. Remember that these Repubs standing on stage with Kamala represent many Republican voters dissatisfied with Trump, and these high-profile Repubs (Dick Cheney!!!) are saying Yes, you can and should (and MUST) vote for Dems this time around, to save the Republican Party, and to save the country, from Trump.
2. Massive Youth Vote:
There are an estimated 40 million 1st time voters this time around, and I’m not convinced they’re being picked up by traditional pollsters (who still use traditional methodologies while the new generation operates on new online communication devices).
Taylor Swift's endorsement alone led to millions of new registrations (400,000 in the first 24 hours) - almost all of whom will vote for Dems. So there's this vast young electorate that aren't on any pollsters' radar, but they're fired up and ready to vote. For Kamala. For women's reproductive freedom. For a party that doesn't think climate change is a hoax.
3. Women’s Reproductive Freedom:
The single largest voting block in this election is: WOMEN. Remember the Women’s March after Trump’s inauguration? They were plenty pissed off at Trump, and that was before his SCOTUS appointees overturned Roe V Wade. This issue hasn’t gone away, and it’s kryptonite for Republicans. Trump & Repubs will pay for it big time.
My wife has an instinct for elections, and she calls this the Women’s Election. Look how desperately Trump is trying to rewrite his own story: now he’s the “Father of IVF” and women’s “Protector,” “whether they like it or not.” And this from “grab ‘em by the pussy” Trump. Get ready for “Roe-vember.”
4. Record High Turnout:
Trump is firing up his base, and hoping for a low turnout election so his base will carry the day. That’s why MAGA/Republicans have been so busy trying to suppress the vote; they need a low turnout election.
But the record advanced turnout across the country tells a different story. This will be a record-breaking turnout election, and Trump’s base (that he solely relies on) won’t be enough to carry the day.
Dems have:
traditional Dem voters
PLUS an unprecedented addition of never-Trump Republicans (cheered on by high-profile Republicans)
PLUS a majority of the 5% voters in the middle (those sane non-partisan and Independent voters)
PLUS a huge youth vote not visible in the traditional polls
PLUS a whole lotta women pissed off with Trump’s SCOTUS picks, and his misogyny.
I think the strongest force that can shape an election is a widespread desire to "throw the bums out" - those are the landslide wave elections. And I think America will have a record turnout and a Blue Wave because the MAJORITY of Americans are sick and tired (and frightened) of Trump and his Republican/MAGA neo-fascist misogynist cult, and that MAJORITY of sane democracy-loving Americans are gonna throw Trump and his Republican/MAGA mob out. In record numbers.
5. Republicans’ Small-Tent Strategy:
After Mitt Romney lost the 2012 election to Obama, he did a sensible thing: he ordered a “post mortem,” not to question or deny the results, but to learn from them. Their conclusions: the Republican Party was a “small-tent” party, but America’s demographics were changing dramatically, and the Republican Party needed to build a “big tent” strategy - address the demographic changes, target non-white, non-traditional Republican voters, and embrace change.
Unfortunately for the Republican Party (and the country), they ignored Romney’s advice. And especially under Trump, they doubled and tripled down. Trump is still totally dependent on that small-tent base.
But America has changed. And the Republican Party will be left behind - because under Trump it’s become a neo-fascist, racist, misogynist, xenophobic cult that wants to stop the changing demographics, round them up and throw them out rather than embrace the demographics of America. They’re a party of the past.
Just the fact that formerly safe Republican states (North Carolina, Georgia, Florida) are now “battleground” states - that tells the story. Even IOWA has become a “swing state.” IOWA!
Republicans should have listened to Mitt Romney. Instead, they went all-in with Trump’s small-tent base, and they’ll soon pay the price.
So I'm confident. In fact, I’m putting my 2¢ on the line and predicting a BLUE LANDSLIDE!
Fuck the polls.
Dems have something going on that we've never seen before:
endorsement and support from Republicans who won’t vote for Trump,
a whole new generation of voters who aren't voting for that crazy old man
an issue (“Women’s Reproductive Freedoms”) that is kryptonite to Republicans
a record-breaking turnout that will swamp Trump’s loyal but limited base
a flailing small-tent Republican Party that is trying desperately to stop America’s unstoppable demographic changes.
So, to my mind, things are looking good. Very very good.
Your mouth to God's ears Abraham. Like you, I don't remember any significant Republicans ever publicly endorsing a Democratic Presidential candidate and, even here in MO, Harris is winning the yard sign poll, along with Amendment 3 for women's health care freedom.
I'm in a very red county in a red state - Kentucky. Today was our first day of early voting and I had to wait almost an hour and a half in the rain. When I left, there were still as many people in line as when I got there. Ditto for the other polling place in the county. I've never seen such a large turnout! I have hope today that we're seeing the end of the orange menace!